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UFC: 111 The Breakdown, Picks and Predictions

It’s going to be a night of interesting fights as many underdogs look to make their mark at UFC:111 . This event kicks off Saturday night March 27th and will be broadcast LIVE on SpikeTV 9p.m. ET with two preliminary fights and with the main card on Pay-Per-View starting at 10p.m. ET.

UFC:111 will be going down from the Prudential Center in Newark, New Jersey and features a welterweight championship battle between UFC welterweight champion Georges St-Pierre and challenger Dan Hardy as the headliner, also on the card, former UFC heavyweight champion Frank Mir will fight Shane Carwin fir the interim heavyweight championship, and much more.

As always, please feel free to put up or shut up and join it by posting a quick set of your own picks in the comment section below.

MAIN CARD 10p.m. ET on Pay-Per-View

Champion Georges St-Pierre vs. Dan Hardy (for welterweight title)

Perhaps the most impressive thing about this fight has been Dan Hardy and his legitimate belief that he will win this fight.  St-Pierre has looked like an unbeatable force in the welterweight division. It’s been pretty well documented that most feel Hardy’s one and only shot is to catch St-Pierre with a shot that knocks out the champion.

The prospect of that happening is so remote that a 3 part series needed to be made to emphasize the point.  While it is true Hardy holds  11 career (T)KO’s , the fact is that he has one KO victory in the UFC over Rory Markham, and 3 decision wins.  Hardy has made a living of raising the level of his game just high enough to beat his opponents, but the hurdle that is Georges St-Pierre is just to high.

Look for a repeat of the Alves/Serra II fights with St-Pierre taking the fight to the ground and keeping it there. With the eventually stoppage coming with St-Pierre punishing Hardy from top position.

Winner: Georges St-Pierre  via TKO ( ground and pound) Round 2

Shane Carwin vs. Frank Mir (for interim heavyweight title)

I’ve found it very difficult to pick against the new breed of undefeated fighters.  With the way matchups are made it becomes difficult to tell who is for real and who is manufactured.

Mir is an extremely marked step up in competition for Carwin.  Mir holds more paths to victory in this fight with Carwin’s advantages being wrestling and possibly power. I’m going to side with Frank Mir in this fight for a few reasons, activity and improvement.

My concerns with Shane Carwin in this fight are quite simple, this is his first fight against elite level competition, and his lack of activity over the past 12 months.

Winner: Frank Mir via submission Round 2

Jon Fitch vs. Ben Saunders

With the loss of Thiago Alves from this fight fellow ATT member  Ben Saunders was quick to step up and want this fight.

I’ve felt for a little while that it’s only a matter of time before Jon Fitch takes a fight with a fighter he shouldn’t be fighting and finds himself with a loss to a mid level up and coming fighter.  Saunders could be that guy.  Saunders has looked impressive against competition he should beat, and had faltered against upper level competition.

On the flipside, Jon Fitch is 21-1  in his last 22 fights with his lone loss coming to Georges St-Pierre.  While Fitch has been anything but exciting in his recent fights, he is winning, and I can’t let my boredom be the cause  for my picking against him.

Winner:  Jon Fitch  by decision

Mark Bocek vs. Jim Miller

Jim Miller holds a large advantage on the feet, and has the takedown defense to keep this fight on the feet.

Winner:  Jim Miller via TKO  Round 2

Fabricio Camoes vs. Kurt Pellegrino

Hometown fighter Pellegrino gets promoted to the main card with an excellent chance to showcase improvement over upstart Fabricio Camoes.  Pellegrino is riding a 3 fight win streak coming into this fight while Camoes comes into the fight off a Draw against Caol Uno.

Pellegrino was scheduled to fight Frankie Edgar in December prior to a back injury that caused him to pull out of the fight.  Camoes will serve as a perfect comeback fight for “Batman”

Winner:  Kurt Pellegrino via submission Round 3


Nate Diaz vs. Rory Markham

Nate Diaz makes his welterweight debut. Look for Diaz to do what has never been done and submit Markham.

Winner:  Nate Diaz  via submission Round 1

Ricardo Almeida vs. Matt Brown

Also making the move to 170, Ricardo Almeida debuts at welterweight.  Almeida draws the always tough and gritty Matt Brown.  While I always enjoy watching Matt Brown fight, and he is riding a 3 fight win streak, Almeida’s ground game is at a different level.

Winner: Ricardo Almeida via submission Round 2


Jared Hamman vs. Rodney Wallace

I have had the pleasure to watch Rodney Wallace fight a few times.  Wallace will use his heavy hands  to score the KO victory.

Winner: Rodney Wallace via TKO  Round 2

Tomasz Drwal vs. Rousimar Palhares

Palhares is a beast, riding a 3 fight win streak Palhares looks to move back towards the top of the card with another workman like victory over Drwal.

Winner:  Rousimar Palhares  via  submission Round 1

Matthew Riddle vs. Greg Soto

Riddle will win this fight , it will be boring and the people arriving at the venue should take their time finding  the best parking spot available.

Winner: Matt Riddle  via decision

  • blue says:

    Hard to imagine Nate Diaz submitting anybody in the first round. Second round, most definitely.

  • fanoftna33 says:

    GSP for sure here as I am not going to pick against him, unless he mover to MW.
    Mir by submission in round 1, he will survive the power of Carwin and rock him standing, then get the RNC.
    Saunders will take this fight late in the third by TKO. I think the change in opponents is going to be tough on Fitch as Saunders has a great guard and will tire Fitch out late and land thoes knees.
    Miller by anything he wants.
    I really like Batman but I think he is going to lose a great fight here, by submission.
    Diaz by TKO, as his chin may not be as good as Nick’s but it is tougher than 90% of the guys out there now, and with very underrated striking Diaz will get the late fight TKO.
    Almedia by submission.
    Drwal by decision here, expect a replay of the Henderson Palhares fight but with better striking from Drwal.

  • Rich S. says:

    1. GSP via TKO (Cut), Round 4
    2. Frank Mir via KO, late Round 1, early Round 2
    3. Jon Fitch via Unanimous Decision
    4. Jim Miller via TKO, Round 3
    5. Kurt Pellegrino via Unanimous Decision
    6. Nate Diaz via Submission, early Round 2
    7. Matt Brown via TKO, Round 3

    1. After watching the Primetime series, I have a better feeling about Hardy/GSP.. At first I thought this fight was ridiculous, but, now it might just be a war.. Hardy could be the grittiest, toughest guy GSP has fought yet, and frankly, he may stand the best chance at beating GSP as far as his strong suit goes.. The problem is, we haven’t really seen him put in danger, so we can’t really know how he’s going to react to the first 5-10 takedowns GSP throws at him.. He could crumble, he could persevere, I say he survives until his face gets the fight stopped..

    2. Mir’s best shot at winning this one is probably on the ground, but I think he kind of wants to strike with Carwin, and honestly, I think he’s going to do so successfully.. Carwin’s a beast, but I think Mir’s smarter, and he’s going to clip him in an exchange after the feeling out process, and after a few big shots have been thrown..

    3. Saunders is a cool dude, but Fitch is most likely going to decision him..

    4. I’m not even sure why Miller is fighting Bocek.. I think he’s ultimately better on the ground, and far better on the feet..

    5. Pellegrino is a beast, and I’ve always thought he could hang among the top guys at 155 if he just added that extra bit of oomph to his game.. I say he dominates here..

    6. Diaz is always going to strike for as long as he can until he gets caught.. Assuming that when he gets caught he’s still conscious, he’ll work Markham down to the ground, and submit him..

    7. For some reason, I see Matt Brown just tearing away at Almeida’s cardio, and eventually finishing him off in the 3rd round..

  • Guthookd says:

    GSP by Sub round II

    Carwin by KO round I

    Saunders by KO round II (yeah, I said it)

    Bocek by Sub round II

    Pelligrino by KO round III

    Almeida by Sub round I

    Markham by decision

    Hammand/Wallace ?

    Palhares by Sub round II

    Riddle by GnP TKO round III

  • Guthookd says:

    Rich S.: …. but I think Mir’s smarter ..  (Quote)

    LOL. I didn’t think I’d ever hear someone call Mir smart.

  • Rich S. says:

    You don’t think he’s smart?

    I know it’s not smart to start saying you want to murder your opponent, but when it comes to gameplanning and technique, I think he’s a pretty smart guy..

  • Guthookd says:

    Yeah, i hear you Rich…I was thinking more about how he uses word combinations like “also too” while comentating…..double negatives…..”isn’t not”….stuff like that. I LOL when people pull shit like that.

    You’re right though, his game planning usually seems decent.

  • bigbadjohn says:

    I dont like Frank but you can tell hes no dum-dum

  • Jak says:

    You did pretty good on this card Mr. Andrest, the Mir/Carwin fight was such a hard fight to call. But for the most part you either nailed it, or were pretty close.

    Good job!

  • fanoftna33 says:

    Terrible night for my picks as I was 4-4 and really should have been 3-5 as I think Miller lost a very close fight to Bocek.


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