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Trading Punches: UFC 107 Preview & Predictions; The Main Card

107Come along with the FiveOuncesofPain crew as managing editor Cory Brady verbally dukes it out with the always opinionated David Andrest over this Saturday evening’s UFC 107 card.

UFC 107 is set for Saturday evening, December 12, 2009 at The FedEx Forum in Memphis Tennesse, airing live on Pay Per View.

Headlining the card will be a lightweight championship clash between B.J. Penn and Diego Sanchez, along with other promising match-ups featuring the likes of Kenny Florian, Clay Guida, Frank Mir, Cheick Kongo and more.

* For some strange and extremely unfortunate reason, all of the text I had prepared for this post (At least 2-3 paragraphs per fight) completely dissapeared once I tried to post it. I can’t put my frustration into words over this incident that still remains a mystery to me. So, instead of not running the story I will publish it with an extremely shortened version of my lost predictions. CB

Champion  B.J. Penn vs. Diego Sanchez

David Andrest: The UFC PR team has done a wonderful job promoting Diego for this fight.  I watch the preview commercial and it’s almost as if Sanchez if the favorite in this fight.  Could Sanchez win this fight?  Sure,  he’s got the same chance, Sherk, Florian and Stevenson had.  B.J. Penn appears calm focused and at relaxed.  To watch a B.J. Penn interview these days almost feels like the champion has a secret that he’s not telling anyone.  For those expecting ( hoping)  for Penn to gas, it’s time to live in the now.  Penn is ready for 5 rounds, and more importantly has prepared and been there before.  Until I see B.J. Penn have a problem at 155, I’m not picking against him.

Winner: B.J. Penn via rear naked-choke

Cory Brady: In my opinion Diego deserves this title shot just a little bit more than Vitor Belfort does at middleweight. It’s not the sexy choice but I feel like either Gray Maynard or Frankie Edgar should be stepping up tmorrow based on their six wins at the weight class compared to Diego’s high profile two. Either way, B.J. has all of the advantages in this fight oiutside of possibly takedowns, but it’s B.J. that holds the huge edge in takedown defense.

Winner: B.J. Penn via submission

Cheick Kongo vs. Frank Mir

David Andrest: Wow that Frank Mir sure can talk. He has talked briefly about his fight with Kongo, prior to talking , and talking , and talking about Brock Lesnar.  While, I think Kongo has more to offer this fight than Mir is willing to admit.  I think this fight will go to the ground at some point.

Winner: Frank Mir via submission

Cory Brady: Kongo just so happen to hold the antidote to Mir’s poison, and it’s not technical striking, it’s good old fashioned GNP. Every single one of Mir’s losses have ended o the canvas. e crumbles when you start bringing the pai from the top, and Kongo has finished his last two victories that exact way. Regardless, Mir looks huge and focused for this one. His size should help him in preventing any takedown attempts.

Winner: Frank Mir via submission

Jon Fitch vs. Mike Pierce

David Andrest:  I’m trying really hard to care or get excited for this fight.  I simply can not.  Fitch is a top 3 welterweight, and the list of people I’m interested in seeing him fight is a short one and does not include Mike Pierce.  Fitch will control this fight and handle Pierce, perhaps finishing the fight in impressive fashion.

Winner:  John Fitch via TKO

Cory Brady: I’m not interested in watching this fight. I think Fitch is an awesome fighter, but I hate watching him fight.. if that makes any sense. Fitch takes this one with ease. I really hope he can notch a finish for his limited highlight reel.

Winner: Jon Fitch via decision

Kenny Florian vs. Clay Guida

David Andrest: This fight on the other hand I am very much looking forward to.   How will training at Jackson’s  change Guida?  Florian has a new camp as well,  will training with GSP’s crew in Canada change his game?  Florian is the class of the division, and in my mind the easy number 2 lightweight in the UFC.   Guida is tall on moral victories, it’s time now for Guida if he is holding out hope of ever becoming more than the high water mark for the division.

Winner: Kenny Florian  via Decision

Cory Brady: Guida may be a slightly better wrestler, but Florian is the better all-around fighter, and it’s a fight. I feel like Clay’s relentless agression will play right into Kenny’s hands.

Winner: Kenny Florian via submission

Paul Buentello vs. Stefan Struve

David Andrest: Welcome back to the UFC  Paul Buentello.  One would have to think this is his last stop at the top before taking fights and headlining indy shows.   I spoke with  Brady earlier today about Struve, he brought up and interesting  point about the number of submission wins and the probable cause.   Buentello comes in with one path to victory.  They don’t call him the HeadHunter for nothing.

Winner: Stefan Struve via decision

Cory Brady: Struve has been actively and cnsistently testing himself against som top shelf guys at heavyweight, while Buentello has not. Only Paul knows where his timing, stamina, and most importantly, where his head is at after a spurt of seruious inactivity and recently beng given the boot from his longtime training grounds, The American Kickboxing Academy.

Winner: Stefan Struve via submission

9 COMMENTS
  • Angry Mike says:

    UFC has reached the point in the lightweight division (and possibly welterweight and middleweight) that they’re just throwing the “mouse of the week” into the cage with the boa constrictor. It may be interesting to watch, but everybody knows the outcome. Diego is a top tier fighter, but BJ is head and shoulders above him and every other lightweight right now. As long as BJ trained and isn’t complacent, he’ll pick Diego apart. And if Diego gets it to the ground–which is a big if, given BJ’s freak flexibility and takedown defense–BJ can submit him.

  • Rich S. says:

    1. BJ Penn via TKO r2
    2. Cheick Kongo via TKO r1
    3. Jon Fitch via Choke r3
    4. Clay Guida via Unanimous Decision
    5. Stefan Struve via Choke r1

    1. In my dreamworld, Diego and BJ put on a Jiu-Jitsu clinic for 5 straight rounds (In which, Diego would get edged out). Unfortunately, that would never happen in the real world. If there’s one thing that annoys me about Diego, it’s that he’s practically thrown is Jiu-Jitsu out the window for boxing. Take the Guida fight for instance. If I remember correctly, he barely attempted any submissions, and as soon as Guida took him down, he almost looked like he was.. dare I say.. lost on his back.. A couple years ago he would’ve been rolling for submission after submission after submission until he sunk one in.. Which leads me to my prediction. Diego’s confidence in his chin, and the carelessness in his energetic/angry fight style is downright dangerous.. He’s going to try to come out against BJ like he did against Guida, and for that he’ll most likely get rocked early on.. I have this small thought in the back of my head that Diego is going to shock the world with a brutal, standing knockout, but I have to go with the pick that actually makes sense..

    2. Mir has long been one of my favorite fighters. But, this whole obsession with Brock Lesnar CAN’T be healthy, and surely it affected his training in a huge way. He DID weigh in at the Heavyweight limit, which he rarely does. I wonder if he still has motivation to continue in the sport.. Normally, this fight is an easy pick for me: Mir by sub whenever he wants. Kongo’s ground game is embarrassing when held against Mir’s. But, I have a feeling Mir is going to want to strike.. Add that to an already suspect chin and a possibly unmotivated Mir and you have a recipe for disaster.

    3. I really wanted to call the upset here. This fight almost seems TOO easy for Fitch. But, until he’s up against GSP again, I’ll probably never pick against Fitch. He may have a relatively hard time in this fight, because Pierce knows this is a huge fight for him, but I think Fitch will do what needs to be done and sink in the choke not long before the final bell..

    4. Again, my first thought here was Florian is going to win this however he wants to. I went out on a limb previously and said that Florian is the best fighter in a division who’s champion is leaps and bounds better than any of the challengers.. I still believe this (we’ll see how Diego does tonight). But, for some reason, I HAVE to pick Guida here.. Florian has better striking and better submissions, but I can’t remember the last time Florian was successful against such a strong, never-ending wrestler. I think Guida will do here, what he does EVERY time out, and give Florian the hardest fight he’s had in a while..

    5. I still think Struve’s striking needs A LOT of work.. He’s very tall, and that really helps to keep guys away with your jab and your kicks, but he always ends up being clinched up with these guys.. So, even after 20 or so fights, he doesn’t really know how to use his height to it’s highest potential yet. Struve will keep his distance for a little bit, and use those sloppy leg and body kicks early on, but at some point, Buentello will come in, he’ll drop struve with a looping hook, and that’s where he’ll get overanxious, run in, and get submitted.

  • JollyDV says:

    Penn via Sub
    Mir via Sub
    Fitch via TKO
    Florian via Sub
    Buentello via TKO

  • edub says:

    It looks like Struve put on some weight. I still cant pick a winner in the fight though. Buentello is very experienced so I think Struve will have some trouble getting him to the ground. If I have to pick a winner I say… Buentello by dec.
    If Mike Pierce wins this fight I think he should fight the winner of Thiago vs. Kos for the next #1 contender spot in the welterweight division. Still… Fitch by dec.
    Ive gone back and forth with Kenny and Clay and their fight. Guida could easily control Kenny for three rounds and take a dec. Kenny’s game has progressed so much I just think he has the timing to give Clay tons of trouble… Kenny by tko
    Mir looked like he put on ten lbs of muscle along with coming in 15-20 lbs heavier than it did at his last weigh in. I think it’ll hurt him in the long run where cardio is concerned, but not in this fight. …
    Frank Mir by tko
    Diego has got one thing on Penn, conditioning. I dont think he is gonna outcardio Penn… Penn by RNC

  • Pajamashark says:

    Yeah, I tried to click on this post a little past midnight last night and got nothing but an empty page. Sorry for your tech troubles, I know that is beyond frustrating.

    I’m a new fan so go easy on me, these will be my first picks and I don’t have the encyclopedic knowledge of MMA like some of the fans around here do.

    I believe the hype about BJ Penn. He is so well rounded and I think he likes being champ very very much. I think the GSP fight made him understand that he needs to take himself more seriously and not start believing his own PR. As much as I love Diego, and he’s a joy to watch in and out of the cage, he seems to operate from his gut/reflexes and not his brains so much. Penn is a very smart fighter and he keeps his cool and operates from a place of impassioned detachment. But I don’t know if Diego’s pride would let him tap, and he’s going to make BJ work. Penn by Decision.

    Kongo I know almost nothing about, but my hate-crush on Frank Mir means I’ve been following him like an ex-boyfriend with a new Facebook account. The loss to Brock scrambled his brains. He’s training for the wrong person, and his new weight means he’s trying to reinvent himself like a wrestler who wants to prove he can bang with a striker. I can see him gassing, and leaving his head unprotected. You can’t put muscles on a chin after all. Kongo by a TKO ground and pound.

    K. Flo knows how to do many many things, while Guida has his one relentless wear down approach. I’m not saying Guida is one dimensional by any means but all of his techniques are going to have to fit into the Guida style, as opposed to Florian who seems to have the ability to channel very pure high level aspects of fighting. Guida will always be Guida but Kenny now has Greg Jackson riding shotgun in his brain in addition to his total discipline and flawless cardio. Guida won’t bend, but Kenny won’t break. Florian by decision.

  • Lich King says:

    Hi guys! I have been checking this site daily for the past few months and decided to make an account so I could join in on the comments and such. Anyhow, here are my picks.

    B.J. Penn vs. Diego Sanchez (Penn via unanimous decision)
    Frank Mir vs. Cheick Kongo (Mir via submission)
    Kenny Florian vs. Clay Guida (Florian via unanimous decision)
    Paul Buentello vs. Stefan Struve (Buentello via TKO)
    Jon Fitch vs. Mike Pierce (Fitch via unanimous decision)
    Alan Belcher vs. Wilson Gouveia (Gouveia via unanimous decision)
    Matt Wiman vs. Shane Nelson (Wiman via unanimous decision)
    Johny Hendricks vs. Ricardo Funch (Hendricks via TKO)
    Rousimar Palhares vs. Lucio Linhares (Palhares via unanimous decision)
    DaMarques Johnson vs. Edgar Garcia (Garcia via TKO)
    Kevin Burns vs. TJ Grant (Burns via unanimous decision)

  • Lord Faust says:

    My picks are as follows:

    Penn -vs- Sanchez (Penn via TKO)
    Mir -vs- Kongo (I have this aching feeling Kongo might score an upset KO, but smart money says Mir by sub)
    Florian -vs- Guida (Florian via Decision)
    Buentello -vs- Struve (Struve via submission)
    Fitch -vs- Pierce (Fitch via TKO)

  • Jstew3785 says:

    BJ by 2nd Round RNC
    Mir by Armbar Round 1
    Florian by Decision
    Buentello by KO 1st Round
    And Fitch by shocking fashion….. Decision… I know, hard to believe a Fitch fight going the distance.
    I said that Sonnen vs Okami would be the most boring fight of the year and I gladly ate my words. Well, I’m going to branch out and say Fitch vs Pierce will be the most boring fight of this decade. Hopefully I have to eat my words again…. but I doubt it.

  • king mah mah says:

    Sanchez- TKO rd 1
    Mir TKO rd 2
    Florian sub rd 3
    Fitch sub rd 1
    Buentello KO rd 2

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