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Trading Punches: UFC 104 Undercard Preview & Predictions

FiveOuncesOfPain.com is kicking UFC 104 week in high gear with another edition of trading punches. Come along with us as we tear into the undercard  for this Saturday evening’s UFC 104 card that features a light heavyweight championship match-up with Loyoto Machida defending his belt for the first time against Mauricio Rua, a battle of the big men  between Cain Velasquez  and Ben Rothwell , a 155 pound shoot out between Joe “Daddy” Stevenson and Spencer Fisher  and much more.

Stay tuned to FiveOuncesofPain.com  this week as we bring you continuing coverage of  UFC 104   that will include,  Previews, Predictions,  and analysis.   You will also be able to watch  the UFC 104 weigh-ins  LIVE and after the Play by Play,  Hop in the Press box with the 5oz’s  staff as we bring  Live video coverage of  UFC 104’s  post fight press conference.

Enough with the intro, let’s breakdown the undercard….


Ryan Bader Vs. Eric Schafer

David Andrest: I’m going to  throw analysis out the window.  I’ll let Cory come in and explain to you all why I’m a moron for not picking Ryan Bader to smash Red Schafer.    I don’t care what is typed below me,  Cory will be right about everything he types with the exception of the outcome of this fight.

Winner: Red Schafer  via Sub

Cory Brady: David already knows where I stand on this subject, and I would truly love to hear how he rationalizes agreeing with my assessment of the bout, yet splitting hairs on the fight’s outcome.

I’ve come to learn that the more friends I make in this business, the harder it becomes to pick fights in a completely unbiased manner. This fight is a little different being that I have learned from experience that both Ryan Bader and Eric Schafer are two of the nicest guys you’ll come across in the sport. However, one man has to win, and another has to lose, and one thing I have always held myself accountable to is picking fights with nothing but the facts in mind.

Bader is a smart guy. Smart enough to know that Schafer’s only path to victory lies on the canvas of the Octagon. Look for “Darth” Bader to employ a gameplan identical to his bout with Vinny Magalhaes in the TUF finals. Bader is going to utilize his superior wrestling to keep the fight standing, and will batter Schafer on the feet at will. Stylistically this is a great match-up for Bader, and a terrible one for Red. Look for the big right hand from Bader to set it all up.

Winner: Ryan Bader via TKO

Antoni Hardonk Vs. Pat Barry

David A: This is going to be a spectacular fight.  Someone is going to be knocked out  or  this fight will be a war of epic proportions that people will be talking about for months to come.  Both fighters are very dangerous strikers at the highest level.   You can throw records out the window,  and just know  Hardonk is absolutely one of the  best strikers in the game.   Oddly enough he and Barry used to train together.  Barry brings big power and excellent stand up as well.   This is a close fight but it’s hard to ignore the size difference.   Hardonk is 5” taller and will have a significant reach advantage.  When you are giving up that kind of size to a guy who is a slightly better striker, it’s going to be a long night………….correction short night.

Winner:  Hardonk  KO

Cory Brady: I agree with Dave’s analysis of the bout, but disagree with the outcome to some extent. An important fact to remember is that Barry has never suffered a legitimate KO or TKO loss (outside of a stoppage due to a cut) in kickboxing or MMA; Hardonk has been TKO’d twice in seven kickboxing bouts. Now provided this one turns into a slugfest like many anticipate, I don’t see Hardonk being able to stop Barry with strikes. The gloves may be smaller in MMA, but the shins are standard issue.

However, I see this one being everything everyone hopes for a moment or two before Hardonk uses his size to drag Barry to the canvas and work for a submission. Look for a keylock, RNC or guillotine.

Winner: Antoni Hardonk via submission

Yushin Okami Vs. Chael Sonnen

David A:To quote a fine reader of this siteSonnen vs Okami likely will be a bit slower” . This fight is interesting on every level with the exception of excitement.  Why is Okami on the undercard?  What happened to his Title shot?  Why is the UFC brushing this kid under the carpet?  Well let’s be honest, would you buy a PPV  headlined by him?

As a fighter, I like Okami, however he is a very slow starter.  I don’t seem to remember him ever winning the first round of any fight.   His lone loss in the UFC came to Rich Franklin by Decision in a fight he clearly won the 3rd round in.

Sonnen is a wrestler that doesn’t finish fights.  Plain and simple, he has the potential to get on top of an opponent and stay there.   Not do a whole bunch while there and win the decision.

Most say  styles make fights.  My question is, Who did Okami piss off?

Winner:  Okami  via  decsion

Cory Brady: Ugh! I’ve never been very good at sugar coating things. I’m not going to sit here and lie to you guys, neither of these fighters are among my favorites to watch. There’s no reason Okami doesn’t win this fight, but he better do it impressively. He won’t.

Winner: Yushin Okami via decision

Jorge Rivera Vs. Rob Kimmons

David A:The good news is, one of these fighters will get their very first winning streak in the UFC at the end of this contest.  Rivera has faced and defeated the better competition.  While anything can happen, I’m going to pick “El Conquistador”

Winner:  Rivera   decision

Cory Brady: Close fight to call. I’ll give Kimmons the edge in the submission department and Rivera the edge on the feet. Considering the fact that Kimmons has never been stopped with strikes I see him pulling out some form of a choke for the strangulation victory.

Winner: Rob Kimmons via submission

Kyle Kingsbury Vs. Razak Al-Hassan

David A:Both guys come into the fight off losses.  In fact they are both 0-1 in the UFC.  Al-Hassan has a fabulous Afro, and is tough as nails. Anyone who saw what Steve Cantwell did to his arm will never question this kids heart.  Kingsbury is a victim of Tom Lawler who will look to hold onto his contract. This is without a doubt a loser leaves the UFC type fight.

Winner:  Al-Hassan  TKO  high kick

Cory Brady: I don’t know if the afro has given you flashbacks from Sho’nuff in “The Last Dragon”, but there’s no way Al-Hassan wins this fight by high kick. The guy has never knocked anyone out in his professional career, and I’m not even sure if he could get his leg up high  enough to blast the 6’4″ Kingsbury with a high kick. But hey, anything can happen I guess.

The fact that Al-Hassan, who sports five submissions in seven wins, had his arm snapped in his UFC debut tells me a lot about the competition he had been facing previously.

Kingsbury has yet to be submitted, and he won’t on Saturday evening either.

Winner: Kyle “Special Sauce” Kingsbury via TKO

Stefan Struve Vs. Chase Gormley

David A: 6’11” Struve, wow.  What can be said about this kid.  At just 21 years old the kid has a ton of experience. With a pro record of 21-3  Struve looks to be battle tested on paper, however I have to wonder about his level of competition.  His lone loss in the UFC came to  Junior Dos Santos, which in hindsight  doesn’t seem  to crazy.

Gormley comes into his UFC debut with a perfect record of 6-0. Gormley is a wrestler who will have a significant weight advantage over Struve.

I’ll be honest about this one,  I have to look at it like this.  Struve is 21-3 and is in the curtin jerker against a guy making his debut.   He is 6’11”  and is 21-3 and this is who we have chosen to open the show with??  It’s obvious to me that the powers that be feel as I do.

Winner:  Gormley  via  TKO

Cory Brady: Gormley should be able to utilize his superior wrestling to give Stefan Struve “Frankenstein Face” in two consecutive bouts. Only this time, Chase should be able to finish the job.

Winner: Chase Gormley via TKO

20 COMMENTS
  • edub says:

    “and one thing I have always held myself accountable to is picking fights with nothing but the facts in mind.”

    So you picked Tuscherer with nothing but the facts in mind?….ZinG!

    Best qoute of article goes to David.

    “Al-Hassan has a fabulous afro, and is tough as nails.”

  • edub says:

    Gormley by tko: Better wrestler, stronger faster, More facial hair.

    Kyle Kingsbury by dec: Agreed with Cory but I dont think he’ll finish the job.\

    Jorge Rivera by close dec: I think itll be a really close fight with Jorge being on top more si he’ll gain more of the judges favor. I thought Kimmons was gonna make a move to WW.??

    Yushin Okami by submission: I think this fight will be a lot closer than people think its gonna go. Yushin Okami’s best asset is his wrestling, and Chael Sonnen is simply better at it than Okami. The mere fact Im picking Okami by submission has more to do with Chael’s sub defense(or lack there of) than Okami’s submission prowess. Still I wouldn’t be surprised at all if Chael took a decision. If Jake Shields could outwrestle Okami for 3 rounds I think Chael has a shot at it.

    Pat Berry by KO: Training with each other will hurt Hardonk IMO here. I think Berry will come out a little cautious in the beginning, and he’ll catch Hardonk at some point. Berry has pointed out before that he used to get the better of Hardonk in training. I tend to believe him. Hardonk is a lot better on the ground , but I just think his lack of wrestling will make it hard for him to get the takedown.

    Bader by tko: If Bisping can do it I think Bader can too. Im thinkin anywhere the fight goes Schafer will take punishment, and the end will come from GnP.

  • Cory Brady says:

    edub:

    “and one thing I have always held myself accountable to is picking fights with nothing but the facts in mind.”

    So you picked Tuscherer with nothing but the facts in mind?….ZinG!

    Ouch! I stand corrected, lol. I try to do my best, but at least I’ll come out and say it when I know I’m playing favorites

  • Rich S. says:

    Spot on with Okami, Andrest..

    When he came out and controlled that 3rd round of the Franklin fight, it left me wondering “Why the hell couldn’t you do that the first 2 rounds?”

    It’s almost like he’s more confident sometimes than others, and that’s when he shines.. Either way, I think he’ll take a decision here..

    I’ll take Jorge over Kimmons via Decision.. He’s pretty inconsistent, and you never know what you’re going to get with him, but, I just like rooting for him.. His striking seems to be getting better and he can hold his own on the ground.. I sure hope his cardio is better now than in his last bout, though..

    I’ve got to take Kingsbury over Al-Hassan via Decision..
    Al-Hassan has good heart and aggression I suppose, but I think he will probably get taken down and controlled here..

    I want to take Red over Bader, but I just don’t know.. Red has a good ground game, obviously, but I just can’t decide if he’s going to get a sub here or get beat up for 3 rounds.. I’ve got to go with the latter.. Bader via Decision.

    Hardonk and Berry are both great strikers.. But, Hardonk has very underrated Jiu Jitsu.. and that’s what will win him this fight.. That and his iron jaw.. They’ll trade for a bit, but it will hit the ground at some point, and that’s where Hardonk will work very quickly to get a submission..
    Hardonk via Submission (choke) r1 or early r2..

  • fanoftna33 says:

    Bader by tko round 2(Shafer is a tough guy but overmatched here).
    Hardonk by submission as RichS and Cory both said Hardonk has decent Jiu Jitsu when not facing guys like Mir.
    Okami over Sonnen via ud
    Al Hassan oner Kingsbury ko
    Rivera over Kimmons via ud
    Gormly over Struve via ko.
    This is a pretty entertaining undercard along with a good main card( David A thanks for using my quote on Okami, that was pretty cool)

  • Bader via TKO
    Hardonk via TKO
    Okami via UD
    Hassan via KO
    Rivera via 3 rd TKO
    Dont know enough about Gromly or Struve to even say.

    Id like to see Berry and Hardnok, the other fights dont interest me to much.

  • Makington says:

    Oddly enough I agreed 99% on everything Cory wrote. I had his exact picks for the exact reasons except for Razak and Kyle. I believe that Al Hassan will get the submission after controlling Kyle on the ground for 14 minutes and getting a submission late in round 2.

    You’ll see…

  • BigDave says:

    I can’t beleave i’m going to say this but Cory you and I call every winner the same.(you can change your picks now 😉 ).

    But why all the hate on okami? Correct me if i,m wrong but isn’t he 9-1 in his last 10, and has he not got a KO/TKO or submission in 5 of those fights including a second round KO of the late Evan Tanner (R.I.P) 2 fights ago.

    I agree Okami will win this fight but I say it will be a TKO (Strikes) rd 2.

  • hindsightufuk says:

    i have a feeling Bader/Red will be amongst the most boring fights this year. Is this one of the fights being shown live? i fucking hope not.
    also sick of hearing how Hardonk is one of the best strikers in the sport. so is he just not effective? cos i dont recall being blown away by him yet.
    Really looking forward to Okami/Sonnen, i know i’m in the minority here
    .
    “Al-Hassan has a fabulous afro, and is tough as nails.”
    dick head should have tapped, fuck him

  • beef says:

    Sho’nuff was the main villain in 1985’s “The Last Dragon” set in Harlem, NY.

    “Enter the Dragon” starred Bruce Lee in 1973. Totally different movies but both worth checking out for their own fun reasons!

  • sexy-yama says:

    I like okami but he should know by now if he wants to be on the main card,he needs to finish hims opponents,his got a good record of being hit the least behind machida thou which should count for sumthing just needs to finish his fights

  • sexy-yama says:

    I like okami but he should know by now if he wants to be on the main card,he needs to finish hims opponents,his got a good record of being hit the least behind machida thou which should count for sumthing just needs to finish his fights!

  • fanoftna33 says:

    Okami may not finish a lot of fights, but he has finished quite a few. Out of 23 wins he stopped 12 fights. Finishing half your fights isnt bad.

  • hindsightufuk says:

    fanoftna33: Okami may not finish a lot of fights, but he has finished quite a few. Out of 23 wins he stopped 12 fights. Finishing half your fights isnt bad.

    And only being finished once in your entire career is pretty fucking awesome (Silva not included)

  • fanoftna33 says:

    The bad part of all the hate towards Okami is that if he finishes say two or three fights in a row the ufc will start hyping him all over the place like he is the greatest threat out there, and brush aside the fact that they have a guy thats 9-1( with the lone loss a very close fight that he came very close to ending in the third to a former champion) getting put in prelim after prelim because he doesnt have “exciting” fights.

  • BigDave says:

    is it just me or was all this being said about machida a year ago and I think he has been doing ok since then.

    Okami needs to start putting more pressure on the ufc brass to give him thew fights he deserves because if not im sure dream, sengoku,or strikeforce would be more then happy to have him on.

    To put things into perspective Dan Henderson who alot of people are talking about being screwed out of a title shot has 25 wins and 13 decisions which is 52% of his wins. Okami has 23 wins with 10 decisions which is 43.48 % of his wins.

    Furthermore all 10 of Okami’s wins are unanimous decisions where as 7 of dan’s 13 are by split decision. This to me means that Okami is winning convincingly and dan is not. To me this puts a little perspective on the whole who deserves a title shot thing. Okami beats Hendo in my opinion yet Dan will never be on an undercard and yet Okami is, theres the real screwjob if you ask me.

  • Cory Brady says:

    beef:

    Sho’nuff was the main villain in 1985’s “The Last Dragon” set in Harlem, NY.

    “Enter the Dragon” starred Bruce Lee in 1973. Totally different movies but both worth checking out for their own fun reasons!

    Good lookin out beef! I knew I should have IMDB’d that bad boy.

  • beef: Sho’nuff was the main villain in 1985’s “The Last Dragon” set in Harlem, NY.“Enter the Dragon” starred Bruce Lee in 1973. Totally different movies but both worth checking out for their own fun reasons!

    The Last Dragon might just be the greatest movie… no, THING ever created. If aliens came to Earth and asked us to explain our technological and cultural achievements, all we’d have to do is pop in a DVD copy of this gem.

    KISS MY CONVERSE!

  • edub says:

    Sergio Hernandez: The Last Dragon might just be the greatest movie… no, THING ever created. If aliens came to Earth and asked us to explain our technological and cultural achievements, all we’d have to do is pop in a DVD copy of this gem.KISS MY CONVERSE!

    Anybody that glows orange is a badass in my book.

  • moosebaby02 says:

    Bader via ground and pound
    Hardonk via sub cause I dont like Barry
    Okami via TKO. I know im going out there with the mindset that he is pissed getting passed up all the time.
    “El Conquistador” via TKO, cool name and the most dangerous gate keeper in the division (UFC wise)
    Al-Hassan via decision. Its all bout the fro power.
    Stefan “The Giraffe Kid” Struve via stepping on top of Gormleys head by accident

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