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Reality Check: Roy Nelson vs. Kimbo Slice, and the winner is….

Kimbo Slice, those two words evoke such emotion among MMA fans, that this weeks episode of The Ultimate Fighter is expected the highest rated in the series ten seasons. Despite how you may personally feel about the man, Kimbo equals cash, and this weeks fight with Roy Nelson is a no lose situation for the UFC.

Once we pull emotion out of the equation, there really are only 4 possible outcomes from this fight. In this edition of “Reality Check” we’ll explore the four scenarios and how everyone involved ( including Kimbo Slice) walks away a winner.

  1. Roy Nelson wins a decision. If this is the outcome on Wednesday night I fully expect the world to embrace Kimbo Slice as an emerging talent in the world of Mixed Martial Arts. While he’ll still have his detractors , it will be undeniable that Slice has come to fight, and come to learn and improve. For the unaware, the difference in experience, skill, and proven talent between the two is enormous. And the mere fact that he could take the former IFL champ the distance would be an accomplishment of epic proportions. Winner: Nelson for raising his awareness in the mainstream instantly. Kimbo Slice for showing the dream may not be over. The UFC who will be able to squeeze at least two more fights out of the Kimbo machine
  2. Kimbo Slice wins by Knockout: While I’d love to see the Vegas odds makers give me a number to the likelihood of this happening, I just can’t see it. With that tossed to the side, a Kimbo KO of Roy Nelson on national television with 7 million people watching would more than likely cause the internet to melt down, and the average UFC fan to start an immediate campaign for Kimbo to headline against Brock Lesnar on New Years Eve as they have close to the same professional record. Winner: Kimbo. The UFC who will be able to squeeze 5 more fights out of the Kimbo machine. And Roy Nelson , who will become a household name.
  3. Roy Nelson wins by Knockout: While this will be the longest road for an all out win for all parties, it’s still going to be a win. If Kimbo gets beat by Roy Nelson, Kimbo will have lost to ROY “BIG COUNTRY” NELSON. By rights Slice should lose to Nelson, the same as I should lose a game of HORSE against Larry Bird. Kimbo losing to a Former IFL champion and a man who other than lack of “Household Name” status has no business on this show, is not a disgrace by any means. The reality is, if you are the UFC and you want to make the most of your Kimbo Cash Machine, a loss to Nelson is probably the best you could have realistically expected. Nelson becomes the name he should have been all along, Slice doesn’t take too much damage in the community, and if Kimbo shows anything, and I mean ANYTHING, people will be forced to wonder “What If” Kimbo fought someone who wasn’t clearly the most talented guy on the show . Winner: The UFC who can get at least 2 more fights out of the Kimbo Machine answering all the “what ifs”. Roy Nelson for becoming a household name instantly, and Kimbo Slice for fighting Nelson and trying to endear himself to the MMA faithful.
  4. Kimbo Slice wins by decision: Shy of a horrible injury to Nelson, this is by far the least likely outcome. Nelson is better every where, it’s just fact. When you add 10 long minutes to the mix, every hole in your game is bound to show. The man with fewer weaknesses will be the winner. If by some micracle Kimbo were to hurt Nelson, and keep him hurt for the 9 minutes that would follow on his way to the win, the people who don’t pass out and hurt themselves while falling would probably call Keith Kizer personally and demand and investigation as reality as they know it has ceased to exist. Winner: The UFC who would be able to get another 5 fights out of the Kimbo Machine. Kimbo who will have closed the mouths of all who spoke ill of him, Roy Nelson who would become a household name, and most of all Mike Goldberg who will be able to utter..”Well Joe, you just never know. On any given night……….blah blah blah………Remember Kimbo Slice against all odds defeated former IFL champion and one of the UFC’s top rated heavy weights Roy Nelson on The Ultimate Fighter Reality show”

The reality is this is a no lose for Slice and the UFC. Win or lose Kimbo will fight in the UFC, Nelson will jump start his blue coller popularity, and the UFC will likely wake up Thursday morning with 2 mainstream superstars instead of one. Kimbo Slice vs. Roy Nelson…………Well played Gentlemen.

Say your piece  5oz’s  reader, tell me how this fight goes.

35 COMMENTS
  • Angry Mike says:

    Is it really so obvious that Nelson should win? Sure, he has more experience, but he’s only 13 and 4. Most of his wins were either in the IFL or in smaller orgs against guys who weren’t top tier. He’s lost to Rothwell (I’ll grant you that he could’ve won that one), Arlovski and Monson, so against better fighters he’s 0 for 3. If Kimbo wins, in my mind it won’t be some huge upset. Unexpected maybe, but not a huge upset.

  • Bullylover says:

    well no doubt that roy nelson is better everywhere i stll think that kimbo has what it takes to leave riy faceup on the canvas.if this is the case then nelson is going to be a house hold name as that guy who lost to kimbo.

  • edub says:

    Mike I could be reading this wrong but are you saying that Kimbo is on the level of Rothwell, Arlovski, and Monson…”He’s lost to Rothwell (I’ll grant you that he could’ve won that one), Arlovski and Monson, so against better fighters he’s 0 for 3″.

  • David Andrest says:

    Mike, it’s that obvious that Nelson should win this fight.

    I promise it’s that obvious.

    Now what actually happens could be a whole different thing.

  • Makington says:

    Well written piece, but Nelson really should win. It’s more than obvious this fight wasn’t picked by Rashad, but rather the producers picked it early so they could secure that exact match up, for the reasons discussed in this article.

  • edub says:

    David A-

    Agreed.

  • Eh says:

    I’m thinking Nelson by sub. If Kimbo’s stand-up can match and/or frustrate Nelson, he’ll goes for the take down and the sub will quickly follow. This could work well for both fighters, it could display Kimbo’s heavy hands and Nelson’s solid ground game.

    Since its well known Kimbo has little to no ground game, its the best possible way for him to lose. Since it not well known that such a rotund man(Nelson) can roll like that, its the best way for him to win!

  • Angry Mike says:

    @edub

    No, I’m not saying that Kimbo is at the same level of Arlovski, etc. I’m saying that Nelson isn’t at that level, either, (not even close, actually) so if Kimbo wins, it shouldn’t rock the mma world. If Nelson was a top tier heavyweight, he wouldn’t be on TUF in the first place. I predict that Nelson takes him down and lays on him, winning by points from punches from top position. He’s too big and Kimbo’s too unschooled in grappling to get out from under him.

  • Makington says:

    He’s not even that big, Kimbo is just too crappy.

  • Angry Mike says:

    Dude, Nelson is HUUGE! Put a white beard on him and have say “ho ho ho” for pity’s sake.

  • edub says:

    Yea Nelson really is one fat bastard.

  • Bullylover says:

    Nelson kinda reminds me of rufus from stretfighter.you know that overweight guy who keeps stalking and challenging ken.

  • Bullylover says:

    i meant streetfighter.

  • xtreme_machine says:

    Kevin “Kimbo Slice” Ferguson on Late Night with Jimmy Fallon tonight

  • sides666 says:

    personally what i would love to see (although highly unlikely) would be kimbo sizing him up for the first 30 seconds or so then landing a few big shots rocking mr.nelson slightly then kimbo shoots for a double leg take down instantly moves into side control lands a few elbows passes to mount starts reigning down bombs, roy desperately tries to stop the beat down by flailing his arms about and kimbo locks on to the left arm(it has to be the left) and rolls for the sickest arm bar anyone has seen.

  • fanoftna33 says:

    this will be a good fight but Nelson is going to try and get him down and probably try some gnp before a sub. Hopefully Kimbo has a good showing. The thing that bothers me is the ufc changing the rules for this tuf, i mean they have never giving anybody two fight picks like they did for Rampage, knowing the longer they got Kimbo to stay on before he fought the better. After hearing all the comments towards him I am really hopeing he comes out and really surprises people.

  • BigDave says:

    Have I mentioned before how much I HATE bimbo splice? He is a disgrace to this great sport and has no buisness ever getting in the ufc after nelson beats him inside two minutes.

  • moosebaby02 says:

    wow i was thinking how much i didnt think kimbo should be on the show but the hate has got me hoping he pulls it off. after thinking about it from the start who was really in control of handleing kimbo?? sure he is going to make some cash from this in the long run but balls to him for even trying. Nelson in the 2nd either ground and pound or sub

  • xtreme_machine says:

    Big Dave “bimbo splice”

    really, how long did it took you to come up with that?

    anyways, i think Nelson will pull out a TKO and i will go crazy and say 2nd round

    also, good analysis in the article man

  • mu_shin says:

    In agreement that win or lose, Kimbo has shown he’s more than a clown or hype machine, as he’s getting in the cage with the the most battle tested fighter in this TUF cast. You can have your opinion about his skills, but he’s man enough to have that cage door locked behind him, and that is worthy of respect.

    I’ve seen Roy Nelson fight in the IFL, and for all the attention he’s gotten for his dough-boy physique, he’s a legitimate MMA pro. Wrote previously that I did not know he was a BJJ black belt, but read that he trained under Renzo Gracie and received that distinction. He does seem to have problems with more elite opponents, but in the TUF format, he’s pretty much the top of the pyramid.

    Nelson and Kimbo both have knockout power. I’ve tried to find any references to Kevin Ferguson training wrestling or BJJ, and aside from the work he did with Bas Rutten, it’s not out there. It seems pretty self evident that the path to victory for Nelson is on the mat, but with all the pressure to keep fights “exciting” and to avoid the dreaded “lay and pray” label, Big Country is likely to go after a stand-up strategy, which could be his undoing.

    They’re listing Kimbo at 235, Nelson will most likely have to cut to 265, so punching power will be in evidence. As most observed, Nelson has the odds with him, but Kimbo has a puncher’s chance, and I think he has a huge heart, which hopefully will be what we see in the fight.

  • thomaswhigham says:

    after seein kimbo on jimmy kimmel im hopin he wins

  • elkymbo says:

    In my opinion the winner will be………..the fans. Anything that makes mma bigger is tops.

  • qat says:

    Im rooting for Kimbo on this one, because i think Roy is pretty damn overestimating himself, and Kimbo seems to be humble and realistic.
    But apart from wishing, my prediction is: Roy wins this one in a hard fight.

  • shotokai_ says:

    How has the most likely outcome not been included in this piece?

    Roy Nelson by Submission R1?

  • metalmulisha says:

    I’m not sure how this is going to plat out tomorrow night, but in the interviews I’ve seen over the past week Kimbo said it’s his best fight and Big Country has said he didn’t want this match up and was talked into it by “Team Rashad” so either they’re both revealing clues there or just adding a little drama.
    As if this fight needs more.

    Either way win or lose Kimbo’s future is in the UFC. Dana probably couldn’t hide the woody he had after seeing the season premiere’s ratings which are because of Kimbo. I would guess if he’s not in the Heavyweight final (since it’s already been announced he’ll be fighting on that event) they might line up a rematch with Petruzelli.

    The irony in all of this is that Dana told everyone with a camera a year or two ago that EliteXC is built around a guy who can’t fight and now he’s built and marketed this entire season of TUF around that same guy.
    His fan boy’s will call that being a promoter I call it being a hypocrite.

  • moosebaby02 says:

    hypocrite or not at least their marketing him right around a show and not around the whole company

  • Beau Fury says:

    I would have to say that Roy Nelson isn’t gonna win. I mean he does have more experience than Kimbo but I think Kimbo could simply out fight Roy due to stamina. Roy’s gut is huge and he can’t have all that great cardio. I’m not taking anything away from Roy but his cardio can’t be that of a Randy, or Brock or any of the current UFC heavyweights. I just think that if Kimbo comes in and sticks and moves and avoids getting tied up with him he will win the decision. That leaves Roy only one possible outcome, well two, 1) He KO’s him. 2) He submits him. And lets face it… he may be a BJJ blackbelt but it is highly unlikely that he submits Kimbo. No this fight is gonna be a brawl and I think that Kimbo will have the faster hands and better conditioning to win this fight.

  • Angry Mike says:

    @metalmulisha

    You can call Dana a hypocrite, but I’d call him a very successful business man, and one who’s making bank from this season’s TUF. I could be out on a limb here, but I’ll bet that if he had to choose between the money he’s making from this season’s TUF and the approval of bloggers on the net, he’d choose the money. And so would anybody else.

  • moosebaby02 says:

    great point Mike. This is a win win situation for Dana ever since he stated back when that the only way Kimbo is going to make it in the UFC is if he went through a tuff series. $$$$$$$$$$$

  • edub says:

    Beau Fury:

    Your assesment leads me to believe you havent seen Roy or Kimbo for that matter fight too much.

    “And lets face it… he may be a BJJ blackbelt but it is highly unlikely that he submits Kimbo.”

    You do realize Roy is not only a bjj black belt but one of the greatest hw grapplers in the world right. He lost a nip and tuck battle to Monson(3rd in adcc), which very possibly couldve gone his way. Just look up his grappling match with Frank Mir on youtube.

    You also seem to think Kimbo has a lot better Cardio. Why? Because he doesnt have a gut? Because hes cut up? The dude was dying at the end of his fight with James Thompson. Roy was about the same or a little bit better at the end of his fights with Rothwell and Monson. This just should Roys fight to lose.

    But it seems to be getting clearer and clearer that this is not the case.(Unless these guys are giving random interviews just for drama.)

  • adamsfamily says:

    I will give credit to the UFC to make a good business even better and to make money in a reccession. They can do this without repossesing our homes and cutting our jobs like other large corporations.
    Kimbo in the UFC? Right or wrong we all make the decision to pay the money to watch it or not. I say let the best man win in any fight – and even if he made it all the way through he would never make it to the top. But If he’s a trier he deserves a shot.

  • I have no problems with Kimbo, he’s ben working hard and trying to be the “sponge” in the gym and thats a quality of an athelete not a street thug. That being said I hope big country takes him down and submits him. I think Big Country is grossly underrated and feel he was on the verge of submitting Andre when the ref made a terrible standup and i would love to see that pear shaped warrior do big things for the fat guys of the world.

  • twyg says:

    First Dana is a hypocrite and a great bussinessman, and I thought that everyone over the past year has learned those two things usually come hand in hand. As for a prediction Kimbo would have to be a huge underdog and rightfully so. I can not believe they gave him Nelson first, Big Country is the most decorated guy in the cast. That is why I am taking Nelson to beat Kimbo. Roy gets the name recogition that he deserves, and Kimbo can sit back and wait to be sloted in when someone gets injured. That is the best outcome for the UFC.

  • jcfisher23 says:

    Kimbos still the man, Roys a Boring fighter, even White said he’s acting like everyone should be impressed implying it wasn’t a good win “with those granny shots”, watching him is like eating cornflakes without milk or sugar..dry and hard to swallow

  • itz_deuce says:

    lets face it, Roy may have experience but after last nights fight, im doubting him. We all know kimbo is an excellent fighter and is willing to lear while roy on the other hand is very stubborn. All roy did was sit on kimbo, and i cant eve call those punches. they were like slaps tp kimbos head. It was said best that roy did the least he could without getting hit, i hope to see kimbo back next week, i believe he is the better fighter

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