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UFC 100: Preview & Predictions

ufc_100_posterUFC 100 is stacked to the brim with fascinating match-ups between some of the most impressive athletes in the sport today.

Genetic freak Brock Lesnar will be looking for revenge against the man that holds the lone defeat over his head as he faces off with Frank Mir for the undisputed UFC heavyweight championship.

Georges St.Pierre will be entering one of the most dangerous challenges in his fighting career as he takes on the Brazilian knockout artist Thiago Alves.

Also on the card will be the TUF 9 coach showdown between Dan Henderson and Michael Bisping, Jon Fitch will be looking to avenge his teammate Josh Koscheck’s loss to Paulo Thiago, “Sexyama” Akiyama will be throwing down with the ever-dangerous Alan Belcher and much more.

Come along as I take a closer look at one of the most significant cards in the history of the UFC.

Brock Lesnar vs. Frank Mir

I’m not making excuses for Lesnar but the fact of the matter is that he just flat out made a rookie mistake in his first fight in the UFC against Frank Mir, and I’m not expecting him to be as careless this time around.

You create your own luck in this sport, and Mir did just that in the first bout between the two as he spun around and caught Lesnar in a leg lock that you normally only get away with during a light grapple, against someone that has no idea that it’s coming. Mir had to be a little surprised with his ability to pull off such a telegraphed maneuver, and I’m sure he knows he will have to be a lot more precise and explosive in this bout with Brock.

He won’t though. For as spectacular as Mir’s submission game is, he has a history of being ground and pounded out by lesser fighters.

People forget that Mir was being groomed as the next UFC heavyweight champ long before his arm snapping victory over Tim Sylvia at UFC 48. He was 4-0, 2-0 with the UFC going into his UFC 38 bout with Ian Freeman. The match-up was widely viewed as a tune-up bout for a future championship match-up but Freeman spoiled those plans in dramatic fashion as he pinned Mir to the canvas and pulverized him with punches in the very first round.

Granted, that was almost exactly seven years ago and a lot has changed since then, but what about the dismal ground and pound defeat at the lanky hands of Márcio “Pé de Pano” Cruz at UFC 57? I understand that the bout was Mir’s first return to action since his devastating motorcycle injury but that doesn’t mean that it never happened.

Of course Mir was clipped by Brandon Vera at UFC 65 just prior to being stopped on the ground with a series of punches, but he was still stopped on the ground with a series of punches. Do you see a pattern developing here?

All three of Mir’s losses have ultimately come by ground and pound.

On paper Lesnar is a terrible match-up for Mir. Massive, incredibly strong, phenomenal wrestler with bone crushing punches from the top position.

However, Lesnar’s only loss in his professional fighting career came to Frank Mir, of course, you can’t completely throw that out the window.

While Mir looked impressive against Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira in his last bout I firmly believe that that wasn’t the best Nogueira we’ve ever seen. As heavyweight title contender Shane Carwin pointed out recently to, Nogueira’s head movement was next to non-existent that night. I seriously doubt Brock will give Mir that same readily available target. He may be humongous, but he’s explosive and quick. Shockingly explosive and quick.

There will be no rookie mistakes this time around.

Winner: Brock Lesnar – TKO – Round 1

Georges St. Pierre vs. Thiago Alves

I feel like many give St. Pierre’s loss to Matt Serra entirely too much weight when looking at this welterweight championship match-up. Let’s not forget that the punch that initially left GSP wobbled clipped him directly in the back of the head. Anyone that has done their fair share of sparring will tell you that being hit with a good amount of force to the back of the head has a funny way of messing with your equilibrium.

To St. Pierre’s credit, he stayed conscious as he managed to absorb what seemed like a hundred flush punches to the chin before the bout’s inevitable conclusion.

I honestly feel like GSP has a much better chin than he is given credit for.

However,none of that really matters as I have no expectation of the current welterweight champion exchanging with Alves for any extended period of time. St.Pierre is a smart fighter. Definitely smart enough to understand that Alves has just one way to in this fight. He won’t be given that chance.

Alves has pulverizing leg kicks but they will be completely nullified by the constant threat of a GSP takedown, leaving Alves to try to turn the fight into a boxing match against one of the most well rounded fighters in the sport today.

Alves will be smothered by GSP and left exhausted after a few solid rounds of trying to get back to his feet unsuccessfully.

Winner: Georges St. Pierre – TKO – Round 3

Jon Fitch vs. Paulo Thiago

Not taking anything away from Thiago, but he had no business winning his last bout with Josh Koscheck. As I’ve described earlier, you create your own luck in this sport. He threw a big uppercut, it landed, he created that luck. However,it was luck. Koscheck was beating Thiago upon the feet before he got caught.

Fitch will not make the same mistake Koscheck did. He is among the very best in the welterweight division and I fully expect to show Thiago that he is way out of his league with the big boys in the UFC.

Thiago is a dangerous ground fighter, and the reality is that is all that he is, a dangerous ground fighter. I expect for Fitch to expose him while avoiding any submission attempts while pounding the Brazilian to a pulp as an act of revenge in the name of AKA.

Winner: Jon Fitch – TKO – Round 2

Michael Bisping vs. Dan Henderson

Bisping’s best chance to obtain victory will ultimately be his undoing in this bout.

Trying to play the wrestling game with Henderson is a bad match-up for most and Bisping is no exception to the rule. I expect for him to attempt to out-maneuver Henderson on the feet and pick him apart standing.

Not going to happen, trying to use fancy footwork with Hendo is like playing with fire. Dan possesses one of the most devastating right hands in the business,a tremendously underestimated left hook, and a chin of absolute granite. Henderson has yet to be knocked out in over thirty professional bouts against some of the meanest men on the planet. Bisping will not be the first.

Henderson could very well use his wrestling to win this bout, and just maul his way to victory, I just feel it’s more likely that he catches Bisping with a ridiculously hard punch early on.

Winner: Dan Henderson – KO – Round 1

Yoshihiro Akiyama vs. Alan Belcher

I’m just going to come right out and say it; I feel like Akiyama is tremendously overrated and will be completely exposed in his first fight with the UFC.

Sexyama’s most recent wins have come over a couple of unrecognizable fighters with a combined record of 4-8, hardly impressive.

Just prior to those stunning victories Akiyama was pulverized by a soccer kick at the foot of Kazuo Misaki. The bout was later ruled a “no contest” after Akiyama protested that he was still downed upon receiving the kick,but he still got blasted,there’s no going back and changing that.

Outside of that, there’s a knockout victory over Denis Kang in 2007,and a submission win over a horribly one dimensional Melvin Manhoef in 2006.

The Japanese Judo expert is not used to fighting men as large as he will face in the UFC, and Belcher is as big as they get for a middleweight.

Regardless of the size differential, Belcher is a much better striker than Akiyama and he will prove it if given the opportunity, which he will.

Winner: Alan Belcher: KO – Round 1

Stephan Bonnar vs. Mark Coleman

I truly feel like we have seen the last of a competitive Mark Coleman in the UFC and this bout will do nothing more than add an exclamation mark to my opinion.

Coleman has a good chance of scoring a couple of takedowns in this fight but I don’t feel like he will have the stamina and endurance to keep him there.

I expect for “The Hammer” to keep it competitive for a little while, but for him to gas out somewhere around the end of the second where Bonnar will turn it up a notch and overwhelm the UFC Hall of Famer.

Winner: Stephan Bonnar – TKO – Round 2

Mac Danzig vs. Jim Miller

Danzig really needs a win in this one coming off of back to back defeats. His key to victory will be to keep the fight standing and out-strike Miller.

This is one of the most evenly matched fights of the card and either man could come away with the win if they fight their fight.

Miller should have the slight edge in the wrestling department and I expect this one to eventually turn into a grappling match. Tough fight to call.

Winner: Jim Miller – Unanimous Decision

Jon Jones vs. Jake O’Brien

If there was one guy with the tools to knock Jones off his undefeated course in the UFC it could very well be O’Brien.

This fight will tell a lot more about Jones than it will about O’Brien. Will Jones be able to stop the takedowns is the question at hand.

This will be the toughest wrestler he has faced to date. If Jones manages to avoid the takedowns, which I feel he will, he should be able to pick O’Brien apart handily on the feet with his unorthodox and highly effective striking arsenal.

Winner: Jon Jones – TKO – Round 3

C.B. Dollaway vs. Tom Lawlor

Both of these men share many of the similar strengths. The key to this match-up is that both men are strong wrestlers, but Dollaway is a lot more technical and powerful on the mat.

With that being said, I feel like C.B. has a slight edge on the feet as well. Simply put, this is a bad match-up for Lawlor.

I expect for C.B. to drag Lawlor to the canvas and proceed to work him over with a variation of elbows and fists to make it three in a row with the UFC.

Winner: C.B. Dollaway – TKO – Round 1

Matt Grice vs. Shannon Gugerty

Another closely contested match-up. Grice will hold an advantage in the wrestling department while Gugerty is known for his ability to force the tap out.

The difference maker in this fight just boils down to which man will be able to implement their game plan.

I expect for Grice to utilize his wrestling advantage by avoiding the ground with Gugerty as the submission is undoubtedly Shannon’s best chance at victory.

Winner: Matt Grice – Unanimous Decision

T.J. Grant vs. Dong Hyun Kim

Grant will be Hyun Kim’s toughest opponent to date. The Korean had his hands full in his last bout with Parisyan and he will find no sanctuary in an opponent as well rounded and relentless as Grant.

I expect a hard fought battle from both men, I just feel like Hyun Kim will be neutralized in the areas in which he is the strongest. Grant will not play victim to the Judo players top game. Instead he will keep the fight standing as much as possible on his way to the unanimous decision victory.

Winner: T.J. Grant – Unanimous Decision

  • Jstew3785 says:

    Add an “explanation” mark. Sorry, just had to point that out

  • fanoftna33 says:

    Good picks Cory, my only differences are
    Danzig over Miller in a great fight all the way around
    Obrien over Jones 2nd round tko

  • edub says:

    “and a chin of absolute granite. Henderson has yet to be knocked out in over thirty professional bouts against some of the meanest men on the planet. Bisping will not be the first.”

    This remind anyone else of Nog vs Mir. Im going against the grain. Bisping by either dec or late tko.

  • JollyDV says:

    I basically have the same picks, but I don’t think Lesnar will finish it in one round. I can’t help but wonder what is going on in Mir’s mind right now. He fought a near perfect fight against Nog, so he should be feeling good right? Then why the heck does he show up in Vegas wearing two guns on his belt like he is in the wild west? Is it a sign?? Fear? or trying to psych out Brock?

  • metalmulisha says:

    Good picks for the most part, but I think you’re underestimating Akiyama.
    It wouldn’t shock me if Belcher won, but it’s not going to be an easy first rd. KO. Akiyama was just taking those last couple of fights in Dream on a 1 or 2 week notice because he wanted his contract with FEG over. I’m sure he’s training much harder for this fight and taking it seriously.

    For all the betters easiest fight to pick is Dollaway over Lawlor and an upset pick for Danzig over Miller.

  • Rich S. says:

    I think Mir always has a good chance of winning by submission, no matter who he’s fighting.. And obviously his striking has improved greatly.. And i’ll be rooting for him.. But Brock is going to do the same thing he did last time.. And honestly, Mir’s mistaken if he thinks the place he’s stronger is on the feet.. Lesnar might not have a good, technical striking game, but he does have power, and that sure helped him with Herring and Couture.. I would love to see Mir win, but I think Lesnar will take it with a TKO early on in round 2..

    GSP/Alves was tough for me.. Because, obviously, it’s hard to pick against GSP.. He’s an absolute monster.. He took ONE submission loss, and transformed his game completely. He became stronger mentally, and stronger in all aspects of his fighting.. Then, he took ONE knockout loss, and turned himself into THE best wrestler the UFC has ever seen (yeah, I said it).. But, Alves is really fast, really strong, and has pulled off many, many upsets in his time.. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him do it again, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see GSP control him, either.. I have GSP via UD..

    Bisping is a totally different fighter at Middleweight.. He’s much faster, and seemingly more powerful.. But let’s be real, nobody beats Dan Henderson.. Obviously, he has losses, but, that’s what I think when I think of Hendo.. He’s one of the absolute strongest fighters in the game to day.. Almost no one can deal with his brute force, whether it’s from his punches or the clinch and ground game.. Bisping will try to pick his shots, and stay away, but it’s inevitable.. Dan will come in swinging those crazy, wild hooks, clinch him up, and get him on the ground.. over, and over, and over again.. I have Hendo via UD..

    Paulo Thiago did knock out Koscheck, which no one saw coming, and is a huge accomplishment.. But, let’s be real, not only was he losing the standup war (and probably close to getting knocked out), but his standup just looked bad.. sloppy, slow, sluggish, whatever you want to call it.. I don’t want to call that win a mistake, because he DID place that uppercut perfectly, but I think Kos would’ve won that fight 8 or 9 times out of 10.. That being said, I think this fight will be tough for both fighters, and Fitch will win via UD..

    It’d be nice to have Akiyama come in, and add a new contender to the MW division, but MAN is Belcher good at pulling off upsets.. I thought Herman was going to beat him a few months back, and I thought FOR SURE Kang would come in and push him around.. I was horribly wrong.. Belcher’s a good fighter, and he’s on a roll.. This one’s still a tossup for me..

    I’m not sure what Coleman has left in him.. I know Bonnar’s a great, well-rounded fighter.. He’ll probably be able to stop Coleman’s takedowns.. And if Coleman gasses anywhere near as quickly as he did with Shogun, it will only be a matter of time before Bonnar finishes it.. I have Bonnar via TKO in round 2..

  • metalmulisha says:

    I forgot to mention also that after Mark Coleman gets triangle choked he’ll say that he’s not finished yet and he’s still getting better and still got room to improve.

  • MMA-LOGIC says:

    Coleman over Bonnar and I would add if Lesnar wins it wont be in rd 1. If he takes him down he wont explode cuz he will be very weary of submissions and if it is on the feet I doubt he will catch him. As for the GSP fight I’m afraid to say you are right, he will hold him down cuz if he doesn’t he will lose.
    Go Jones! Love your work.

  • KTru says:

    Lesnar will attempt the same plan as last fight, only with not leaving his limbs out for the taking. Mir has improved stand up but I truly believe he cannot hurt Brock with those punches.
    Lesnar TKO 2nd RD

    GSP says his stand up is as good as Alves’. He is only putting up a smoke screen to make Thiago think he is willing to stand and trade. I do believe this fight will go back and forth and Alves will gain much respect and new fans around the world.
    GSP via UD

    Henderson does not respect Bisping and feels he can take this fight anywhere and will try. Dan’s lack of cardio in the past, will be the only reason this fight heads to the judges. A very similar fight to the Franklin fight, as I see Hendo winning the first two rounds and the “Count” getting the third. Afterwards I think Bisping will understand the level he is not on yet.
    Henderson via UD

    Fitch versus Thiago is a very interesting fight. For neither are known for their stand up and I feel this will be a stand up war. Fitch is relentless and will try to pressure Paulo. In my opinion, Fitch will try and stay away from ground attacks, being that Thiago is a BJJ black belt and other than the Koscheck fight, he has not proven he has KO power.
    Fitch via UD

    Belcher has had the luxury to welcome yet another fighter to the Octagon. Afetr a surprise submission over a top 10 MW in Kang, he will be taking on “Sexyama”. A very talented fighter with a huge following, will also be surprised by a man on nobodies radar in Belcher.
    Belcher via 2nd RD armbar

  • KTru says:

    Bonnar 1st RD TKO….Coleman is too old and not interested

    Miller 2nd RD RNC….people need to understand how tough the Miller boys are. (last fight for Mac in the UFC)

    Jones 1st RD KO….Too much for O’Brien to handle (KO of the Night)

    Clarence 2nd RD Guillotine….he taps again, but disputes it and gets the victory

    Grice UD….simple as he is the better fighter

    Kim 1st RD TKO….Judo champ will toss Grant around for fun

  • shotokai_ says:

    Lesnar via TKO Round 2:
    After patiently dominating the first round, both on the feet and the floor, Lesnar catches Mir with a big right on the feet and finishes him – brutally.

    GSP via TKO Round 4:
    Similar fight to the one with Fitch; a war, with Alves taking a lot of punishment and gaining the respect of the crowd for his spirit to continue and try and win the fight. After the 3rd, however, his gas tank can’t quite match GSP’s dominating ground performance and the refereee stops it late in the 4th.

    Henderson via Split Decision:
    I think Hendo will try and stand in the first round but get out pointed on the feet by the quicker Bisping before Hendo changes his strategy in the second and third rounds which allow him to control, and sometimes dominate, Bisping against the cage and on the ground. This one will be a lot closer than people are predicting though.

    Fitch via TKO Round 2:
    I think Thiago will look about as poor in this bout as he looked in the Koscheck fight, up until he tagged Koscheck. This will ultimately mean he gets beat up on the feet, on the ground, wherever Fitch fancies. These two are worlds apart in my opinion and Fitch will overwhelm him on the ground in round 2.

    Belcher via Unanimous Decision:
    Belcher wins this fight on the feet and in the clinch and Akiyama can’t take it anywhere else. Simple as that.

    Bonnar via TKO Round 3:
    I think the first will be close, with Coleman getting Bonnar to the ground at times and at others Bonnar tooling him on the feet. Coleman typically gases at some point in round 2 and its only a matter of time before Bonnar catches him decisively in round 3. I don’t think Coleman will be knocked down though; I expect a finish somewhat resembling Shoguns victory over him – with Coleman completely spent against the cage, Bonnar teeing off, the referee jumping in, and a predictable Coleman protest afterwards.

    Jones via Unanimous Decision.

    Dollaway via TKO Round 2.

    Grice via Unanimous Decision.

    Dong Hyun Kim via Unanimous Decision.

  • BigDave says:

    im gonna make it quick

    Bisping by tko rd2
    akiama sub rd 1
    Paulo thiago by sub rd 2
    St peirre ko rd 1
    Lesnar by ripping off Mirs arm and beating him with it rd 1

  • Patrickk says:

    Very very good analyzing! Belcher should have won, Bonnar should have won, CB should have won. The only one I didn’t agree with was T.J. Grant winning. How could you try to stand and bang with a Judo Black Belt? He’s just going to grapple you and take you to the ground. I never though Grant standed a chance from the get-go. In every fight, there is always some grappling. And if Kim was going to get beat on the stand-up, you better believe he would have been pursuing the clinch with all of his might. You just can’t stop clinching with someone. Not even in boxing, or even kickboxing. And Kim has him outclassed with the clinching and grappling.


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