The staff of FiveOuncesOfPain.com is back with another series of predictions, this time for Saturday’s UFC Ultimate Fight Night 17 featuring UFC lightweight champion Joe Lauzon taking on Jeremy Stephens.
Joe Lauzon vs. Jeremy Stephens
Lee Gerowitz: Lauzon is a smart fighter, which means that he is well aware of the fact that Stephens nearly became the first human being to decapitate another human being with an uppercut not too long ago (versus Rafael dos Anjos at UFC 91). Which means Stephens can drop bombs. Which means Lauzon will do everything in his power to take this fight to the ground and submit Stephens. It also wouldn’t surprise me to see Lauzon stop Stephens either. Regardless, I think this one is going the distance, with Lauzon dominating.
Lauzon by decision
Christopher Dolan: Joe Lauzon should be able to walk away from this fight with a submission victory.
Caleb Newby: Joe Lauzon wins this one after taking it to the ground in a fairly straight forward affair. Unfortunately, hardly anyone will care as Vaseline detracts from this nice free event we have. Winner: Joe Lauzon – Submission, Rd2
Cory Brady– This is a tough fight to call. Much tougher than initially meets the eye. These guy’s really match up well. Lauzon is a better submission artist and Stephens is a more explosive striker but neither gap is too great for either to overcome. I think Lauzon is just a little more well rounded out of the two. Lauzon by decision
David Andrest: I can try as I may to pretend this isn’t a late minute replacement main event. Lauzon is a better fighter, and I expect him to pound him out. Winner: Lauzon
Cain Velasquez vs. Denis Stojnic
Lee Gerowitz: Velasquez is a wrestler who can throw down. Stojnic is a striker who can’t wrestle. The issue is, if Velasquez, who’s not quite a submission specialist, takes Stojnic down, what can he do with him? I don’t see him taking a nap on Stojnic for three rounds. Ultimately, this fight stays standing…until Stojnic falls down. Velasquez by TKO, round two
Christopher Dolan: I think this might be a huge mismatch. Velasquez should be able to show off his ground and pound to earn a TKO victory.
Caleb Newby: Yeah, I think we know what the UFC wants here and what is all but assured to happen. Winner: Cain Velasquez – KO, Rd1
Cory Brady– Cain Velasquez is a complete monster at heavyweight and he is doing the right thing by fighting a guy like Stojnic at this early point in his career. Cain will be champion one day but there should be no rush. Velasquez by devastation in the first round
David Andrest: Velasquez is the perfect example of a guy too big for Light Heavyweight, and not quite big enough for Heavyweight. He will have a successful career with no title runs. If It appears I’m treating this fight as an after thought, it because it is an after thought. Velasquez by TKO
Anthony Johnson vs. Luigi Fioravanti
Lee Gerowitz: For all intents and purposes, this will be a boxing match, as well as a strong candidate for Knockout of the Night. I also think there is a 6% chance that these two will simultaneously knock each other out. I don’t have a freaking clue as to who will win this fight because I believe that it’s a toss up. Okay, I just flipped a coin. Fioravanti by TKO, round one
Christopher Dolan: Johnson looked great in the octagon his last time out and I think he will keep things rolling with a decision victory over Fioravanti
Caleb Newby: As much as I think people may be riding the Rumble bandwagon a little too high too early, I can’t go against a man that athletic and exciting. Luigi will be his toughest test yet though, and I can’t help but feel some apprehension over making this pick. Winner: Anthony Johnson – TKO, Rd2
Cory Brady– Another fight that is tougher to call than one would think. I want to say Johnson without a doubt but Luigi is just so well rounded, trains with one of the best camps in the business and has dynamite in his fists…plus, he’s a really cool guy. Oh well, A.J. is one of the coolest guys you will ever talk to as well and I see him having the tools to get the job done. Johnson by TKO.
David Andrest: Everyone loves Luigi. He entertains everytime, works hard, and shows up to fight. Unfortunatley for him, Johnson is a very good young fighter with power , speed, and more importantly a sick reach advantage. Johnson by TKO
Mac Danzig vs. Josh Neer
Lee Gerowitz: Mac Danzig may have the coolest name ever, plus he craps intensity. Like Danzig, Neer is coming off of a loss, so I expect both of these well-rounded fighters to enter the octagon in top form. Danzig’s loss, his first in the UFC, was to Clay Guida at UFC Fight Night 15. Neer’s last loss was to Nate Diaz on the same card. Guida just beat Diaz at UFC 94. I have absolutely no idea how that helps me choose a winner in what is an excellent match-up, but it sounded cool. I see Danzig having just a bit more in the gas tank. Danzig by decision
Christopher Dolan: I think Danzig will be able to bounce back from his loss to Clay Guida with a decision victory over Neer.
Caleb Newby: Wow, this card actually does have some good fights on it, doesn’t it? You’d never know that in the post January Mega-Fight aftermath. Both these guys are veterans… I’m leaning Danzig, but don’t quote me on that. Winner: Maz Danzig – Decision
Cory Brady– Danzig is just a little more dangerous on the ground and that’s what will make thee difference. Danzig by submission
David Andrest: They didn’t make this match for Danzig to lose two in a row……….pay attention people. Winner: Danzig via sub
Jake Rosholt vs. Dan Miller
Lee Gerowitz: Former WEC fighter and collegiate wrestling champion Rosholt makes his UFC debut against an extremely well-rounded fighter in Miller. Rosholt has a world of potential, but I think he’s still a bit raw. And while his chin is rock solid, I believe that he will eat a lot of punches before the fight eventually goes to the ground, where Rosholt’s wrestling skills will not be enough to override Miller’s submission skills. Miller stops Rosholt; it’s just a toss up as to whether it’s by TKO or submission. Welcome to the UFC, kid.
Miller by submission, round three
Christopher Dolan: If all goes according to plans for Miller he should be able to pick up a submission victory.
Caleb Newby: Rosholt is welcomed into the UFC with a game Dan Miller. Rosholt has a shot, but I’m going Miller with a late fight submission. Why? It just makes sense in my head. Then again, I went 5-5 on UFC 94. Winner: Dan Miller – Sub, Rd3
Cory Brady– Rosholt’s wrestling is beautiful to watch but I feel like Miller may be a little too experienced for him at this point in his career. I hate having to pick this fight. Miller by decision
David Andrest: Being one half of my least favorite fight in 2008, Rosholt’s victory over Nissen Osterneck showed me he has the ” Take down, and do nothing” part of wrestling for MMA down. I know everyone is picking Miller by experience. I’m picking Rosholt because it’s exactly the outcome I don’t want to see. Rosholt via lame GnP after 14:30 of lay and pray.
Rich Clementi vs. Gleison Tibau
Lee Gerowitz: Tibau is on a two-fight losing streak. My momma told me that two plus one equals three.
Clementi by TKO, round one.
Christopher Dolan: Rich Clementi picks up the win? Yes that’s right look for a decision victory as I don’t think he will have this fight take place on the ground.
Caleb Newby: Clementi was on a roll going 6-1 with his only loss being against the skyrocketing Gray Maynard. Tibau shouldn’t be short of motivation either with two losses in a row making this a must win to continue in the UFC. Winner: Rich Clementi – TKO, Rd2
Cory Brady– Clementi has more tools at his disposal than Tibau. I don’t see Clementi finishing Tibau but he will defeat him and send him on a vacation from the UFC for a while. Clementi by decision.
David Andrest: Odd fight, and odd fight placement. Rich Clementi gets no love………..( see what I did there) from the UFC decision makers. Who does he have to beat to get on television? How many fights in a row does this kid have to win?? This should be a great fight, as Tibau has a fresh new haircut, and Clementi needed an additional hour to make weight…………that made it even in my book. Winner: Clementi via decision
Kurt Pellegrino vs. Rob Emerson
Lee Gerowitz: Emerson is 8-6 and on a six fight winning streak. His last fight was a 12 second demolition of Manny Gamburyan at UFC 87. Pellegrino, meanwhile, is consistently inconsistent. Emerson is lucky to be in the UFC with such limited skills. And don’t give me the “but he shows tremendous heart” argument. Every fighter, regardless of their skills, has heart for simply entering the octagon. I think Emerson exits the octagon a loser. Pellegrino by TKO, round one
Christopher Dolan: I like Pellegrino to win this fight with a second round TKO.
Caleb Newby: Rob Emerson has fared much better in the UFC than I’d expected. Still, I am going to be picking against him once again by going with Pellegrino. PROVE ME WRONG ROB! Seriously. That’d be great. Winner: Kurt Pellegrino – Decision
Cory Brady– Emerson looked amazing in his knockout finish of Gamburyan but I wouldn’t put too much weight in a bout that ended so suddenly.Pellegrino has shown time and time again that he is tough as nails and I see him edging out Emerson in what should be an exciting fight. Pellegrino by decision
David Andrest: Rob Emerson has not lost a professional fight in the Octagon. Take a moment, soak that in and say it so it really hits home. Rob Emerson has not lost a professional fight in the Octagon. With that said all good things must come to and end. BATMAN by decison
Matt Grice vs. Matt Veach
Lee Gerowitz: Veach may be 10-0, but none of those wins have come in the UFC. Grice’s last fight was a war with Jason Black at UFC 77. Veach will come in trying to impress, while Grice will want to remind the UFC of who he is. I’ll go with Grice because of his UFC experience.
Grice by TKO, round two
Christopher Dolan: This bout goes to the judges’ scorecards where Grice picks up the decision.
Caleb Newby: UFC jitters anyone!? That’s my favorite fallback when the whole “Who does Joe Silva want to win” isn’t really applicable. Winner: Matt Grice – TKO, Rd3
Cory Brady– Don’t know very much about either fighter but Grice has fought the tougher competition and his experience in the octagon will be a factor being that Veach is making his debut. Grice by submission
David Andrest: Grice via decision
Nick Catone vs. Derek Downey
Lee Gerowitz: We have two more fighters looking to impress in their UFC debuts. Catone was supposed to fight against TUF season seven champ Amir Sadollah at UFC 91, but Sadollah pulled out due to injury. I cannot imagine that the UFC would have paired Sadollah with a fighter who had a great chance at beating him. For that simple reason alone, I am justifying my logic and picking the fighter who is on a three-fight win streak: Downey. Downey by decision
Christopher Dolan: Cantone wins a dominating fight via a third round TKO.
Caleb Newby: Wait… who? Time to fire up the Fight Finder… Winner: Nick Catone – Decision (random selection)
Cory Brady– I’d be lying if I said I’m really familiar with either fighter. Fight Nights…sigh…whatever. Catone by submission?
David Andrest: Let it forever be known and Gerowitz’s Theory of Canativity: If you were the sacrificial lamb to a fighter with an unknown talent level . You are the sacrificial lamb to his last minute replacement. Winner: Downey
Steve Bruno vs. Matt Riddle
Lee Gerowitz: Let’s be real here. The UFC has provided Riddle with the opportunity to show up and beat a fighter that he should beat. And that’s exactly what he’ll do. Riddle by TKO, round one
Christopher Dolan: I know some people will probably back Riddle in this bout but I’m going with Bruno to win a decision victory
Caleb Newby: Seriously, Matt Riddle’s nickname needs to be “Papagiorgio”. Just rent Vegas Vacation and you’ll see the resemblance. I like Riddle, inexperience and all, due to his wrestling and uncanny ability to win vehicles at the slots. Winner: Matt Riddle – Decision
Cory Brady– Matt Riddle should be able to use his superior ahletecism and strength to walk away with the W. Riddle by TKO
David Andrest: I hope at UFN 18 we can have Matt Riddle open the show against Barry O or SD Jones. I wonder if Riddle will pull out this victory? Winner Riddle by destiny.